A macroeconometric model of energy for public policy
After the recessions occurred in 1973 and 1979, oil shocks are considered as a source of economic fluctuation in U.S. and the economic implications of those shocks in growth, unemployment, inflation and real wages, have been extensively studied since then. However, those works have not yet permitted...
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| Formato: | Tesis de Doctorado |
| Lenguaje: | fra |
| Publicado: |
Par?s / Universit? Paris 1, Panth?on-Sorbonne / 2015
2016
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| Acceso en línea: | http://repositorio.educacionsuperior.gob.ec/handle/28000/1918 |
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| Sumario: | After the recessions occurred in 1973 and 1979, oil shocks are considered as a source of economic fluctuation in U.S. and the economic implications of those shocks in growth, unemployment, inflation and real wages, have been extensively studied since then. However, those works have not yet permitted to reach a consensus. The debate has been even intensified in the last decade, when we did not observe a reaction of the real economy in the increasing period of oil prices between 2002 and 2007. Both the decrease in output and the increase in unemployment rate were just visible by the end of 2008, in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. The motivation of this thesis is to reexamine the impact of oil shocks on the real economy. Firstly, based in Blanchard & Gal? work, we propose three new Dynamics Stochastic General Equilibrium models (DSGE), where oil is explicitly introduced as a consumption good and a factor of production. By relaxing several hypothesis used in Blanchard & Gal?, we aim to better represent the real economy. Our models recover most of the stylized facts observed after the oil shock of 2000s' and explain the transmission channels of oil shocks. Secondly, we analyze possible policy actions that can attenuate the impact of oil shocks. The results obtained reopen discussions about the role of oil dependency, monetary policy and wage rigidity in the attenuation of oil shocks. They raise a new policy debate, namely the role of household bargaining power in wage contract negotiation in the attenuation of oil price shocks on unemployment. Finally, they shed light on the value of oil's output elasticity and oil substitutability. |
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